Milton to become a major hurricane Monday as it barrels toward Florida: Updates

Editor's note: This page reflects the news of Hurricane Milton from Sunday, Oct. 6. For the latest updates on Hurricane Milton's path and forecast this week, read USA TODAY's hurricane live coverage for Monday, Oct. 7.

SARASOTA, Fla. − Milton grew more powerful and gained hurricane status Sunday as it rolled through the Gulf of Mexico on a track that imperils areas of the Florida Peninsula still recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Helene.

Milton's sustained winds reached 85 mph and are "continuing to rapidly intensify," the National Hurricane Center said after the storm's winds increased by 40 mph in 15 hours, adding that further strengthening is expected over the next two days.

The center predicted Milton would become a major hurricane by Monday and approach Florida's west coast Wednesday. A major hurricane means at least a Category 3 storm, which drives winds of 111 to 129 mph and can cause "devastating damage," according to the National Hurricane Center.

On Sunday, Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded a state of emergency to 16 more counties, meaning 51 of Florida's 67 counties are now part of the directive.

"A major hurricane is the most likely outcome," DeSantis said. "This is not a good track for the state of Florida."

The rain, which has already begun here, could reach totals of 5 to 10 inches with localized totals up to 15 inches across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night, hurricane center specialist Eric Blake said. The rain brings the risk of widespread minor to moderate river flooding.

But uncertainty about Milton's intensity and track remains and the storm could hit Florida as a major hurricane or weaken, the hurricane center said.

"Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week," the hurricane center warned in an update Sunday.

Milton tracker:Officials warn Florida residents to have 'hurricane plan'

Developments:

∎ Milton was 780 miles west-southwest of Tampa by Sunday evening, driving sustained winds of 85 mph. The storm was moving east at 7 mph but was expected to gain speed and turn toward the east-northeast in the coming days.

∎ There are now three hurricanes simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, the first time on record that has happened after September, said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University. They are Milton and, much farther east, Kirk and Leslie.

∎ The White House said President Joe Biden was briefed Sunday on the storm, its potential impact on the Florida Gulf Coast, and the work FEMA is doing to position resources in advance.

∎ The first inundation estimates for Milton show a likely storm surge in locations along Florida's west coast from south of Cedar Key to Everglades City.

Conditions ripe for Milton to intensify before reaching Florida

Very deep, warm waters and light wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to contribute to Milton's intensification, Blake wrote Sunday.

Most models show the relatively small storm becoming a Category 4 or 5 hurricane over the next day or so, and the official forecast calls for Milton to have 145 mph winds by Wednesday, Blake said. He added that the forecast could still be "too low."

But wind shear is forecast to increase as Milton approaches Florida, and it is expected to weaken the hurricane. However, that also figures to increase its size, Blake said, making it a large hurricane at landfall, with “very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area.”

− Dinah Voyles Pulver

Wall of water to target Florida

Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist for WeatherTiger, says Helene and Milton are likely to go down as among the most devastating one-two punches ever to hit Florida. The most recent track would put landfall somewhere between the Nature Coast and Marco Island, he wrote for the Tallahassee Democrat, part of the USA TODAY NETWORK.

But Truchelut added that the exact forecast track is not crucial because impacts are going to be widespread throughout the Florida Peninsula. And Milton will be a ferocious storm, building up a life-threatening wall of water over days, no matter what wind-based hurricane category the storm ultimately reaches at landfall, he wrote.

"Bottom line is nothing good is going on with Milton today, and I continue to hate that this is happening so, so much," Truchelut wrote. "We’re facing a compounded threat with few precedents in hurricane history."

Truchelet added that "we’re all exhausted already. You are, I am. That’s reality." Read more here.

Tampa area braces for brunt of Milton

Communities along Florida's west coast are still recovering from Helene and a record-breaking storm surge pushed up by its enormous size and high winds. With Milton on the way, Hillsborough County, which surrounds the eastern half of Tampa Bay, announced it would close comfort stations that had been open for Helene’s victims. The county was also opening sandbag-distribution locations and urged residents to move light, unsecured items indoors, clean rain gutters and drains and document everything with photos and videos.

Helene’s storm surge flooded areas in Hillsborough County, peaking at more than two feet higher than records set during Hurricane Idalia in August 2023. On the west side of the Bay, in Pinellas County, Helene claimed 12 lives as the Gulf of Mexico surged into neighborhoods, also reaching heights more than two feet above previous records.

“We are saturated, just fully saturated, and to have a month’s worth of rain in one storm is going to be difficult enough, not even to mention the storm surge and the wind damage,'' Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN on Sunday. "Right now we are still cleaning up from Helene.''

If Milton passes near or north of Tampa Bay, winds could drive surge above Helene’s heights and above the 10-feet-plus levels not seen since 1921, Truchelut said.

"The best thing I can say now is that Tampa Bay residents simply have to prepare for Milton as if the worst case will occur, and hope that it doesn’t," he said.

Will Milton's evacuations top Irma's 6 million?

Florida's top emergency management official said Sunday he is preparing for what could be the largest evacuation since Hurricane Irma in 2017. More than 6 million Floridians − about one-quarter of the state's current population − were ordered to flee their homes for Irma.

"I highly encourage you to evacuate" if you’re in a Milton evacuation zone, Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said Sunday. DeSantis said orders could be issued in some areas as soon as Monday, and later added that highway shoulders may be opened to facilitate evacuations.

The Florida Department of Transportation is monitoring traffic, and as soon as travel speeds are down to 40 mph, the state will begin to open shoulders for travel to relieve congestion, according to state Transportation Secretary Jared Perdue. 

Castor said she's encouraging residents in some zones to leave for higher ground now so they’re not caught in traffic escaping the storm surge later. Fort Myers Beach south of Tampa ordered mandatory evacuations effective as of 3 p.m. Monday.

Guthrie did say that those who aren't dependent on power for medical reasons and who live in newer homes inland out of an evacuation zone may be better off riding out the storm.

− Jim Rosica, USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida

Gov. DeSantis: Emotionally, 'it's tough'

At a briefing Sunday, DeSantis warned that a "really significant storm surge" could arrive in the coming days, adding that such a surge could have a more severe impact in the heavily populated Tampa Bay area than the surge in the Big Bend area of the state from Helene's landfall.

DeSantis said the impact from Milton could be extensive for Floridians far from the Gulf Coast. But he added that residents still have a few days before the storm makes landfall − and warned them not to "take their foot off the gas" on efforts to clean up debris from Helene's wrath. Flying debris could increase the likely damage from Milton's high winds, he said.

DeSantis also said he was recalling personnel and equipment he had dispatched to North Carolina and Tennessee as part of "Operation Blue Ridge" to assist in recovery from the historic flooding that Helene brought there. Those assets will be needed at home, he said.

"It's not easy to go through this again," DeSantis said. "From an emotional perspective, it's tough. People do get fatigued."

Restaurants struggle to operate amid Helene, Milton

At least one popular Sarasota-Bradenton area restaurant closed again after only one day of business following Helene's path through the area. Tides Tables restaurant and marina, a waterfront eatery on the Intracoastal Waterway, closed temporarily following damage from Helene on Sept. 26.

During Helene, one of its docks was slammed by a boat and an entire tiki bar overlooking the water was destroyed.

On Thursday, Tide Tables was feeding its neighbors in a 55-and-older mobile home community, and by Friday, Tide Tables had opened to the public. The restaurant reopened for a full day of business Saturday before announcing it would be closing again.

"We will be closing up again tomorrow in preparation for the upcoming hurricane," Tide Tables posted Saturday on social media. "Please stay safe and we will see you on the flip side! Cortez Strong." Read more here.

− Wade Tatangelo, Sarasota Herald-Tribune

Disney World open ahead of Milton

Walt Disney World Resort was open on Sunday. Disney posted a hurricane update on its Disney World weather updates and information page: “To ensure you have a magical visit to Walt Disney World Resort, we encourage you to prepare for the local climate and check the weather forecast for Central Florida. Check back for important weather updates."

The theme park, which includes Magic Kingdom, Animal Kingdom, Epcot, and Hollywood Studios, created a Disney World FAQ page addressing hurricanes. Regarding cancellations and rescheduling Disney vacations, the theme park giant says: "If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area − or for your place of residence − within 7 days of your scheduled arrival date, you may reschedule or cancel." Read more here.

− Jennifer Sangalang

Tropical Storm Milton tracker:Major hurricane forecast to slam Florida

Milton landfall near Tampa Bay is possible

Accuweather forecasters said Sunday they expect Milton to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall near Tampa Bay on Wednesday morning.

“This is an unusual and extremely concerning forecast track for a hurricane approaching the Tampa Bay area,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said. “This hurricane could create a life-threatening storm surge. Please make sure your family and friends in this area are prepared.” 

After crossing Florida, Milton should turn eastward over the Atlantic, the hurricane center said. Helene headed north, creating a path of death and destruction for hundreds of miles through Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Sarasota area still cleaning up from Helene ahead of Milton

Sarasota County authorities advised residents to start securing debris from Hurricane Helene. Debris collection trucks were working "as safely and quickly as possible" to remove debris ahead of Milton.

"The impending storm presents additional challenges for our community and first responders," county officials said in a statement. "If possible, please secure debris to help prevent loose debris from becoming airborne in high winds, posing an additional danger."

Neighboring Manatee County declared another state of emergency for Milton, in addition to the one that was still in effect for Helene. Water levels in Lake Manatee were being lowered ahead of the heavy rains. "Start preparing for potential storm surge and rain impacts now," county officials advised. 

Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver, Cheryl McCloud, Taylor Ardrey, Jim Rosica and Francesca Chambers, USA TODAY